Oil Rises for Second Consecutive Week – May 15, 2025
Despite ongoing political and economic uncertainties influencing the global oil market, oil prices have risen for the second consecutive week.
According to a Reuters report, oil prices fell during Friday’s trading session, driven by efforts from eight key OPEC+ members to accelerate the review of voluntary output cuts and expectations around a potential nuclear deal with Iran. However, easing tensions between China and the United States helped maintain an overall upward trend in oil benchmarks.
As of 08:21 GMT, Brent crude was down 29 cents at $64.24 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 30 cents to $61.32 per barrel.
In the previous trading session, both oil benchmarks declined by over 2%, primarily due to speculation over a possible nuclear agreement with Iran.
Impact of Iran and the Asian Market
Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Market Analysis at Onyx Capital, commented on the current situation: “The oil market still shows growth potential, but the positive effect of reduced U.S.-China trade tensions is gradually fading.”
He added that some OPEC+ countries are attempting to stabilize the market by speeding up adjustments to their output cuts. Meanwhile, ongoing negotiations between Iran and the U.S. could pave the way for Iranian oil to re-enter the Asian market, particularly in China.
Sanctions Relief: Opportunity or Threat?
Analysts at ING have warned that if sanctions on Iran are lifted, the country could ramp up oil production and attract new buyers — a development that could result in an additional 400,000 barrels per day entering the market.
Despite this potential increase in supply, Brent crude gained about 1% over the past week, while WTI rose approximately 0.5%.
Trade Deal and Forecasts
A 90-day truce in the U.S.-China trade war has also impacted the market. During this period, the two nations have reduced some tariffs, which could contribute to relative stability in the oil market.
According to BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, the projected average price of Brent crude for 2025 remains around $68 per barrel, and $71 for 2026 — down from the $80 average in 2024. The firm notes that while short-term tensions may ease, ongoing uncertainty over long-term trade policies could prevent a sustained price rally.
Supply and Demand Outlook
The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects an increase of 380,000 barrels per day in global oil supply for 2025. This revision is largely attributed to lifted production limits by Saudi Arabia and several other OPEC+ members.
At the same time, despite a modest upward revision in demand forecasts (by 20,000 barrels per day), the IEA still expects the market to experience an oversupply in the coming year.
Monetary Policy and Oil Inventories
Investors are closely watching for potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates, as a rate cut could stimulate the global economy and boost oil demand.
Meanwhile, the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that crude oil inventories have increased more than expected — raising concerns over weakening demand in the U.S. market.
