The United States, still the world’s largest crude oil producer, is now facing intensifying competition from OPEC and its allies. These nations have ramped up output in an effort to reclaim lost market share and pressure member states that have failed to comply with production quotas.
Since April, OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia and Russia have increased their total production by 1.37 million barrels per day, accounting for 62% of their goal to return 2.2 million barrels per day to the global market.
This surplus is entering a market clouded by uncertainty, as oil producers around the world assess the impact of volatile economic policies and prepare for a long-term shift toward cleaner energy alternatives.
For the U.S., falling demand for a significant share of its light crude output has created complications for producers already grappling with the trade tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. At the same time, government pressure to boost domestic output is leading some companies to consider production cuts.
According to weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), average oil exports in May fell to 3.8 million barrels per day, down from 4 million barrels in April.
Prices for key grades of U.S. light sweet crude have also declined sharply. WTI Midland, a benchmark shale crude, has dropped 45% since early March and is now trading just slightly above U.S. crude futures. Louisiana Light Sweet has also seen a nearly 30% decline over the same period.
Kepler data shows that U.S. exports of light sweet crude to Europe fell to 1.4 million barrels per day in May, compared to 1.6 million in April and 1.7 million in May 2024.
Although light crude is easier to refine, many global refineries have invested in expanding capacity to process heavier and sour grades, which are typically cheaper and still capable of yielding large volumes of valuable fuels.
